“‘Cash on the sidelines’ is much less than the $3.4 trillion in money market mutual fund assets that market participants typically cite as the No. 1 reason stocks are poised to rally,” analysts wrote.
via Cash on Sidelines Less than Estimated: Goldman – Financials * US * News * Story – CNBC.com.
Nonetheless, China is still far from taking over as the chief driver of growth in Asia, let alone the global economy. The positive impact of its rapid expansion is still outweighed by the negative impact from U.S. consumers cutting back their spending. “The near-term scope for China to offset sluggish demand from advanced economies appears limited,” the IMF says, noting “Asia depends primarily on consumers in the large advanced economies.” Its researchers calculate that demand from the U.S. has historically accounted for one-third of Asian exporters’ industrial value-added output (a more accurate measure than the gross dollar amount of exports.
via Replacing the U.S. Consumer: Is China Up To The Job? – China Real Time Report – WSJ.
Finviz, MacroAxis, Ivolatility, FreeRisk are Web 2.0 equity financial data and analytics mash-ups for when you don’t have a Bloomberg screen
“There is a big distinction between information from corporate issuers and information from elsewhere, and information about companies and about the market,” said David Moody, a New York securities lawyer.
However, market participants say the Galleon case could have a chilling effect on the distribution of market “colour” – possibly affecting other hedge funds that trade frequently to make quick returns. “High-velocity hedge funds aren’t really about investing,” said one hedge fund founder. “It is a cat and mouse kind of thing, a game.”
via FT.com / Companies / Financial Services – Galleon paid banks millions for ‘edge’.
The gold bug has caught several big hedge fund managers this year including John Paulson and Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisers, who believe enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus that has been injected into the global economy will eventually result in hyper-inflation.
via Seeing Next Boom, Tudor Goes For the Gold – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com.
Winning the race, Mr. Jones posits, will be gold, emerging-market equities denominated in local currencies and commodity-related stocks. “I have never been a gold bug,” he says in the letter. “It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And that time is now.” (Read the entire letter after the jump)
via Seeing Next Boom, Tudor Goes For the Gold – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com.
The hypothesis does not claim that the market price is always right. On the contrary, it implies that the prices in the market are mostly wrong, but at any given moment it is not at all easy to say whether they are too high or too low. The fact that the best and brightest on Wall Street made so many mistakes shows how hard it is to beat the market.
via Jeremy J. Siegel: Efficient Market Theory and the Crisis – WSJ.com.
Efficient market hypothesis
I was at presentation a couple of years ago at the Asia Society on China, and one of the panelists observed that if you wanted to design a system guaranteed to produce hyperinflation, it would be hard to do a better job. The global financial crisis has provided a wee bit of a respite on that front for China; we’ll see, when world growth resumes, if this view proves correct.
Bill Gross: One of Our U.S. GDPs Has Gone Missing.
Sounds like he expects and is looking out for a double dip.
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